BOS@PIT
Thu, Nov 5, 6:10 PM CT · Team stats from the Team Rankings snapshot 2026-11-05 (saved Thu, Nov 5, 4:04 PM CT)
Production modelPublished model projection · unaffected by the research layer belowProjected total 6.54
BOSAway
Proj. goals3.25
Win prob.38.7%fair +158
Starting goalieJeremy SwaymanProbableLineup may change
PITHome
Proj. goals3.86
Win prob.61.3%fair -158
Starting goalieArturs SilovsConfirmedLineup posted
Win probability includes overtime and shootouts.
Research layerResearch context only. The team statistics below are a separate research layer. They do not feed or change the production model.
BOS advantages 0 (0 off · 0 def)PIT advantages 6 (3 off · 3 def)Even 8
BOS: No major matchup edge
PIT biggest advantage: offense HDCF/60 1st vs BOS HDCA/60 24th (5v5)
Counts of the moderate/strong labels below; not a model score.
Top Matchup EdgesThe largest rank and value differences already shown in the rows below (strong or moderate only). Not recommendations.
PIT OFF vs BOS DEF
High-danger chances / 60 · HDCF/60 vs HDCA/60 · 5v5
1stvs24th
▲ Strong offensive advantagePIT OFF vs BOS DEF
Scoring chances / 60 · SCF/60 vs SCA/60 · 5v5
7thvs20th
▲ Moderate offensive advantagePIT OFF vs BOS DEF
Expected goals / 60 · xGF/60 vs xGA/60 · 5v5 score & venue adjusted
7thvs17th
▲ Moderate offensive advantageBOS OFF vs PIT DEF
Shot attempts / 60 · CF/60 vs CA/60 · 5v5
20thvs7th
▼ Moderate defensive advantageBOS OFF vs PIT DEF
Power play vs penalty kill · PP% vs PK% · Special teams
20thvs10th
▼ Moderate defensive advantageBOS OFF vs PIT DEF
Scoring chances / 60 · SCF/60 vs SCA/60 · 5v5
17thvs7th
▼ Moderate defensive advantageTop third for that unitMiddle thirdBottom thirdTendency (not good/bad)Offense cardDefense cardRank 1 = best for that unit.
Overall · team vs team
Share and record metrics already combine offense and defense, so they are compared side by side and never labeled as matchup edges.
Metric
BOS
PIT
Expected goals share (xGF%)5v5 score & venue adjusted
15th50.7%
7th54.3%
Expected goals share (xGF%)All situations
21st48.7%
9th51.6%
Shot attempt share (CF%)5v5
19th48.8%
8th52.7%
Goals share (GF%)All situations
2nd60.0%
23rd48.5%
Goal differential / 60All situations
3rd+1.17
23rd−0.20
Points %Season · NHL.com
4th71.9%11-4-1
29th40.0%5-8-2
5v5 & shots · offense vs defense
Per-60 rates are season-to-date only; no last-10 split is stored for them.
BOS OffensevsPIT Defense
Expected goals / 605v5 score & venue adjustedadjustedEven
BOS OFFxGF/60
12th2.76
16 GP
PIT DEFxGA/60
11th2.48
15 GP
Expected goals / 60All situationsrawEven
BOS OFFxGF/60
21st3.07
16 GP
PIT DEFxGA/60
13th3.03
15 GP
Shots on goal / 60All situationsrawEven
BOS OFFSF/60
20th25.91
16 GP
PIT DEFSA/60
17th27.17
15 GP
Shot attempts / 605v5raw▼ Moderate defensive advantage
BOS OFFCF/60
20th53.94
16 GP
PIT DEFCA/60
7th52.59
15 GP
High-danger chances / 605v5rawEven
BOS OFFHDCF/60
14th11.47
16 GP
PIT DEFHDCA/60
6th9.82
15 GP
Scoring chances / 605v5raw▼ Moderate defensive advantage
BOS OFFSCF/60
17th26.43
16 GP
PIT DEFSCA/60
7th24.88
15 GP
PIT OffensevsBOS Defense
Expected goals / 605v5 score & venue adjustedadjusted▲ Moderate offensive advantage
PIT OFFxGF/60
7th2.95
15 GP
BOS DEFxGA/60
17th2.68
16 GP
Expected goals / 60All situationsrawEven
PIT OFFxGF/60
15th3.23
15 GP
BOS DEFxGA/60
17th3.22
16 GP
Shots on goal / 60All situationsrawEven
PIT OFFSF/60
14th27.43
15 GP
BOS DEFSA/60
19th27.51
16 GP
Shot attempts / 605v5rawEven
PIT OFFCF/60
9th58.58
15 GP
BOS DEFCA/60
18th56.57
16 GP
High-danger chances / 605v5raw▲ Strong offensive advantage
PIT OFFHDCF/60
1st13.90
15 GP
BOS DEFHDCA/60
24th12.24
16 GP
Scoring chances / 605v5raw▲ Moderate offensive advantage
PIT OFFSCF/60
7th29.70
15 GP
BOS DEFSCA/60
20th27.36
16 GP
Special teams
BOS OffensevsPIT Defense
Power play vs penalty killSpecial teamsraw▼ Moderate defensive advantage
BOS OFFPP%
20th20.0%
16 GP
PIT DEFPK%
10th82.1%
15 GP
PIT OffensevsBOS Defense
Power play vs penalty killSpecial teamsrawEven
PIT OFFPP%
23rd18.2%
15 GP
BOS DEFPK%
18th76.4%
16 GP
Goaltending & finishing
BOSJeremy SwaymanProbable
2026-27 season · research context · ranked among 65 qualifying goalies
GP · TOI12729 min
GAA2.3110th of 65
xGA/60 · tendency3.0131st of 65
PITArturs SilovsConfirmed
2026-27 season · research context · ranked among 65 qualifying goalies
GP · TOI10603 min
GAA2.9832nd of 65
xGA/60 · tendency2.9024th of 65
Shooting %, save %, PDO and finishing above expected are tendencies. They are shown for context and never produce matchup labels.
BOS FinishingvsPIT Goaltending
Shooting % vs save %5v5 · tendency
BOS OFFSH%
7th11.5%
16 GP
PIT DEFSV%
28th88.8%
15 GP
Finishing vs goals saved above expectedAll situations · tendency
BOS OFFGF−xGF /60
5th+0.44
16 GP
PIT DEFGSAx /60
29th−0.30
15 GP
PIT FinishingvsBOS Goaltending
Shooting % vs save %5v5 · tendency
PIT OFFSH%
14th9.8%
15 GP
BOS DEFSV%
1st94.2%
16 GP
Finishing vs goals saved above expectedAll situations · tendency
PIT OFFGF−xGF /60
15th−0.10
15 GP
BOS DEFGSAx /60
1st+0.88
16 GP
PDO (SH% + SV%)
5v5 · tendency
Values far from 1.000 tend to drift back toward it.
BOStendency
1st1.056
PITtendency
25th0.986
Form & schedule
The last 10 games are most of each team's season (16 and 15 GP), so Season and L10 overlap heavily.
Last-10 numbers come from NHL.com game results (goals, shots, points). Last-10 expected goals are not available from the saved data, so none are shown.
Last 10 points %
Last 10 games
BOSraw
4th75.0% · 7-2-1 in last 10
Season 71.9%
PITraw
27th35.0% · 3-6-1 in last 10
Season 40.0%
Last 10 goals for / game
Last 10 games
BOSraw
5th3.70
Season 3.56
PITraw
25th2.80
Season 3.20
Last 10 goals against / game
Last 10 games
BOSraw
3rd2.50
Season 2.38
PITraw
24th3.60
Season 3.40
Last 10 shot share
Last 10 games · all situations
BOSraw
24th48.5%
Season 48.5%
PITraw
11th50.7%
Season 50.2%
Rest
From the NHL schedule at snapshot time
BOS
2 days rest
Last: 2026-11-02 vs VGK W 2-2
PIT
1 day rest
Last: 2026-11-03 vs VGK L 2-3
Personnel context
BOS
- Lineup may change
- Goalie: Jeremy Swayman (Probable)
PIT
- Lineup posted
- Goalie: Arturs Silovs (Confirmed)
Data used
- Team statistics: Team Rankings snapshot 2026-11-05, updated Thu, Nov 5, 4:04 PM CT. Season-to-date regular season.
- Production model projections: the published Matchups board.